(WASHINGTON) — When President Donald Trump delivers the first State of the Union address of his second term Tuesday night — it will be a chance to make the case for his sweeping policy goals directly to millions of Americans — ahead of November’s midterm elections where control of Congress is at stake.
One year ago, Trump proclaimed “America is back” as he addressed a joint session of Congress shortly after taking office, laying out novel plans to make good on issues he campaigned on, including lowering prices while imposing worldwide tariffs, the mass deportations of immigrants in the country illegally, and a promise to keep America out of foreign wars.
Since then, he has taken unprecedented, often highly controversial, steps to reshape the federal government and achieve those goals, testing the limits of presidential power on both the domestic and foreign policy fronts. But he’s done so at a political cost – with polls showing a growing number of Americans displeased or opposed.
An ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll released Sunday finds that Trump’s overall disapproval rating is at 60% — a high for his second term.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters Tuesday morning that the president will contend that he and Republicans are the best choice to “continue tackling the affordability crisis” and that he’ll feature a Pennsylvania waitress who benefitted from his “no tax on tips” policy.
Earlier, she posted on X that “In one year, President Trump has turned our country around from the brink of disaster, and he will rightly declare the State of Our Union is strong, prosperous and respected.”
He could also use his speech to shore up support from lawmakers and the American people on two major, immediate issues: the current showdown with Iran that could end up with Trump ordering the U.S. military into war — and his tariff policy — much of which was struck down as illegal last week by the Supreme Court.
At least some of the justices are expected to attend, possibly including the conservatives ones he picked and who joined in that ruling. By tradition, they will be seated just in front of him, and the presence of justices he has railed against, even personally attacked, could bring fireworks to the House chamber.
The economy and tariffs
After months of blaming former President Joe Biden for leaving what he repeatedly called an economic “mess,” Trump has now taken full responsibility for the economy, even declaring last week that he “won affordability.” While he is sure to tout the relative taming of inflation in recent months – down to 2.4% now from 3% when he took office – that hasn’t translated into lower prices across the board for many Americans.
Prices for some key household goods such as eggs and gas are down, but his tariffs and other factors have increased the prices of many household goods such as produce, beef and coffee.
The ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll shows that almost half of Americans, 48%, say the economy has gotten worse since Trump took office — although that number is down slightly from 52%, who said the same in October.
Given that, he faces an uphill battle to persuade Americans they are better off. According to that recent ABC/Post/Ipsos poll, 65% of Americans disapprove of how Trump is handling inflation and 57% disapprove of how he’s handling the economy overall.
“We have the greatest economy we’ve ever had,” Trump said Monday. “We have the most activity we’ve ever had. I’m making a speech tomorrow night, and you’ll be hearing me say that. I mean it’s — it’s going to be a long speech because we have so much to talk about.”
As Democrats make the rising cost of health care a major message for their candidates to run on in this fall – after many Americans saw their premiums skyrocket when Affordable Care Act subsidies expired at the start of the year – Trump will likely need to counter that by citing what he says he’s done to make health care more affordable.
He will surely point to his Most Favored Nation policy that lowered the cost of some pharmaceuticals and the TrumpRx platform aimed at making those lower prices for some medications more transparent.
Foreign policy
Trump will also have the chance to make the case for some of the ambitious foreign policy moves he’s made during his first year in office. His reshaping of America’s role in the global order comes as even some Republicans have criticized Trump for focusing too much on foreign policy rather than on domestic issues.
At his orders, the U.S. has amassed a major military force near Iran as negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program between American and Iranian officials are likely to continue on Thursday. Even so, critics say Trump and his administration have not made publicly clear exactly what objectives they are seeking in Iran.
At the same time, he has made clear the possibility of military action — either limited or more prolonged — is not out of the question, even as polls show Americans are hesitant about the U.S. getting involved in another war to make changes in another country.
More than half of Americans, 54%, oppose Trump using the U.S. military to force changes in other countries, while only 20% support it (and 26% say they have no opinion or did not respond to the question), according to the ABC/Post/Ipsos poll.
Trump will also have the chance to lay out his view that America has supremacy over the Western Hemisphere, what he has coined the “Don-roe Doctrine.”
That view was evident in the military operation that put American boots on the ground in Venezuela to capture then-President Nicolas Maduro and the ongoing strikes he’s authorized on boats allegedly carrying drugs in the Caribbean and Pacific that have killed more than 150 people.
That ideology was also a cornerstone in his repeated calls for the U.S. to “own” Greenland, something that alarmed many of America’s closest European allies. The president said that a deal with Denmark was in the works for ownership of the territory during his trip to Switzerland in January, but since then no other information has come from the White House about the status of those talks.
Immigration
The president will also likely tout success on the border and immigration, even as some public opinion has turned on the tactics used by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the immigration crackdown he’s ordered.
The Department of Homeland Security said in December that 2.5 million undocumented migrants were removed from the U.S. and the president has celebrated the reduction in crossings as the southern border, both of which were major campaign promises.
However, as ICE operations have ramped up, public opinion has started turning against them in the wake of the killings of Renee Nicole Good and Alex Pretti in Minnesota by federal law enforcement.
The ABC/Post/Ipsos poll found that the president’s approval ratings on immigration are also at a low for his second term — with 58% disapproving of his handling of immigration and 40% approving.
ABC News’ Fritz Farrow contributed to this report.
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